The US received a number of advantages in being the world's reserve
currency, especially in the years following the breakdown of the Bretton
Woods system – the US cost of financing was much lower than that of other
countries, allowing it to run greater trade
and financial deficits than those possible for other
countries.
However, such a system encourages economies to run excessive deficits, leaving inflation as the
only escape. The current global currency system is unsustainable –
it has not been effective in dealing with the financial
crisis; the US has a large deficit
that it may need to inflate its way out of; and emerging economies have had the incentive to
continually undervalue their currencies against the USD to make their exports more attractive, now believing that they would
not succeed if they allowed their currencies
to appreciate naturally.
Then what is the alternative?
Restoring the gold standard is impractical – a pure gold standard tends to
be deflationary, while a not-so-pure gold standard based on derivatives could
be manipulated like the current currency system.
A global currency is another possibility, and was suggested by John Maynard Keynes. However, current problems
with the eurozone highlight how unrealistic it is to have a single
currency representing relatively independent economies, with widely varying
industries and political systems To be successful, a common
currency would require a loss of sovereign power to a certain degree, with one
agency overseeing trade policy, including limiting surpluses and monetary
policy to avoid inflationary temptations.
Another alternative was suggested in early 2011 when the IMF issued a report on Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as a replacement
for the USD as the world’s reserve currency.
In 1969, SDR's were created as a more limited
global currency. They can be converted into a required currency at exchange
rates based on a weighted-basket of currencies.
When the IMF issues funds to economies, they are typically dominated in SDRs, the largest such issue being the
equivalent of USD250 billion in April 2009 in response to the private-lending
collapse in the financial crisis.
It is argued that they would be a less volatile alternative to the dollar,
despite not being a tangible currency.
Increasing the global role of SDRs and issuing more SDRs would reduce the
current problem of recessionary bias – during and after financial crises, the
burden of adjusting to payments imbalances falls on nations running large
deficits, the US in particular – by allowing central banks to
exchange the SDRs for hard currency, rather than exchanging dollars.
This would also reduce the need for countries to accumulate reserves,
facilitating a reduction in the global imbalances that result from countries
stockpiling USDs. And, the smaller scale of SDRs would help
sustain the recovery of the global economy without leading to inflation. That
being said, the final point is dependent on the IMF members limiting the
introduction of SDRs into the market over the next few years.
If you have an opinion on the future direction of the USD, or which
currencies will perform well in the global economy, why not try forex trading? Trading is available on a range of
currencies, the most common currency pairs being the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD,
USD/CHF and AUD/USD.
Remember that CFDs and forex trading are leveraged products and can lead to losses that exceed your 1st deposit. CFD trading may not be appropriate for everybody, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks concerned.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment